In 4Q20, world supply may rise towards 92 mb/d from 91.3 mb/d in 3Q20 if Libyan output continues to recover and assuming OPEC+ produces to its target. - - OIL WORLD ANNUAL 2020 - - On about 730 pages the ANNUAL provides analyses and statistics of the 2019/20 world supply & demand situation and of the prospects for all major oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals. The overall demand estimate for 2020 is largely unchanged at 91.7 mb/d (down 8.4 mb/d versus 2019), as is the estimate for 2021 at 97.2 mb/d, (up 5.5 mb/d year-on-year). In this context, governments do not need to take strong containment measures and use of transport remains closer to normal. Long Run Forecast In the long run, which “ is a time frame in which the quantity of all factors of production can be varied ” (Parkin 2010, p.214), oil demand and supply … Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart. 2020 is a challenging year for most of the industries in the world due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. While this is a large change, it is happening from record high levels. At 100 mb/d, output was virtually flat on a year ago, with non-OPEC gains of 2.4 mb/d offsetting declines from OPEC. The supply of oil is also fairly inelastic. The report provides a detailed analysis of key developments impacting oil market trends in world oil demand, supply as well as the oil market balance. U.S. crude oil prices fell 1.2% to settle at $19.87 per barrel, the lowest since February 2002. Bookmark ... (EIA), oil supply exceeded demand by around 6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2020 and the gap is expected to extend to 11.4 million barrels per day in the second quarter. With falling demand and increasing supply, the front-month price of the U.S. benchmark crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell from a year-to-date high closing price of $63.27 per barrel (b) on January 6 to a year-to-date low of $20.37/b on March 18 (Figure 1), the lowest nominal crude oil price since February 2002. Our 2020 forecast is unchanged at 91.7 mb/d, down 8.4 mb/d from 2019. The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. But the defining story of oil in the age of global coronavirus is not supply, analysts say. The statistics are based on the OIL WORLD Monthly of 11 December 2020. Oil Prices Fall As Supply Jumps. This is the largest oil production cut ever negotiated aimed at stabilizing oil prices. Oil - US Crude IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Oil - US Crude for the first time since Dec 09, 2020 when Oil - US Crude traded near 4,590.60. North Sea Dated, remained below the futures front month reflecting a well-supplied prompt market. Global oil supply fell in September as OPEC+ countries improved the compliance rate with their agreement. This year, the report considers topics such as the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) on demand; slowing supply growth in the United States and other non-OPEC countries; and the level of spare production capacity in OPEC countries to help meet demand growth. The IEA predicts non-OPEC supply to expand by 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year and by another 2.2 mb/d in 2020, with demand growth figures running at about half those levels. Global refining throughput in 2020 is expected to decline for the second consecutive year, falling below 2017 levels as demand for transport fuels plunges in the wake of the coronavirus. Global oil demand is expected to fall by a record 9.3 million barrels a day this year as government-implemented lockdowns keep the economy at a near standstill, the International Energy Agency said. Coronavirus Data and Insights . The trajectory for Covid-19 infections is strongly upwards in many countries and governments are tightening restrictions on the movements of their citizens. However, a second wave of Covid-19 cases and new movement restrictions are now slowing demand growth. Geopolitical events and severe weather that disrupt the supply of crude oil and petroleum products to market can affect crude oil and petroleum product prices. IEA's oil market report was released yesterday suggesting a Q4 2020 market deficit of 4.1 mb/d. Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent crude rising above $40 a barrel, as the IEA increased its oil demand forecast for 2020 and as record supply cuts supported. The resulting higher oil prices have bolstered non-OPEC output and OPEC is expected to restrain output in 2020. The impact on the world economy is becoming more apparent, and growth estimates for this year are being downgraded. For 2020 as a whole, the magnitude of the drop in the first half leads to a decline in global oil demand of around 90,000 barrels per day, the first annual fall since 2009. In October, Hurricane Delta shut in record volumes of United States offshore production, although initial reports suggest that damage to infrastructure is limited and output is expected to recover quickly. As well as the negative impact on demand of the coronavirus, the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting was seen by traders as a bearish signal. Exxon has a announced some pretty game changing predictions for oil supply and demand, and if the company is correct, peak oil is not likely to happen in our lifetimes In this case, global oil demand could grow by 480,000 barrels per day in 2020. This chart shows how projections of changes in Saudi Arabia crude oil production results in changes in WTI crude oil prices. Malaysian palm oil industry was also affected by the outbreak of the coronavirus. IEA (2020), Oil Market Report - March 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2020. Containment measures imposed in North America, Europe and elsewhere are expected to have a smaller impact on oil demand than those in China. Malaysian palm oil industry was also affected by the outbreak of the coronavirus. In the first quarter, China suffers the most with a year-on-year drop in oil demand of 1.8 mb/d as factories shut down and large-scale confinement measures curb transportation. Robust non-OPEC supply gains of 2.1 mb/d in 2020 and a contraction in demand cut the call on OPEC crude to 27.3 mb/d. Global oil supply fell by 580 kb/d in February as production from Libya slowed to a trickle. Earlier this month, the OECD lowered its global economic growth estimate for 2020 by 0.5% to 2.4%, a revision that is factored in to our latest projections. ... IG Client Sentiment Index: Crude Oil (June 22, 2020) (Chart 1) Oil - … The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. In a more optimistic high case, we assume that the situation comes swiftly under control in China and the most serious contagion remains limited to a few countries, with no serious impact in most of Europe and North America. In this pessimistic case, global oil demand could decline by 730,000 barrels per day in 2020. At this stage, high uncertainty over the course of the outbreak has led us to propose alternatives to our base case – a more pessimistic one in which global measures are less successful in containing the virus; and an optimistic case in which the virus is contained quickly. The implication, therefore, is that the OPEC+ countries will be free to exercise their commercial judgement when assessing future levels of production. Since both supply and demand for oil are not very responsive to price changes, oil price swings tend to be dramatic. Demand for oil has all but dried up as lockdowns across the world have kept people inside. The oil market has been under pressure in 2020, with the spot price for WTI crude oil declining by 20% since January as the COVID-19 pandemic has caused global demand to shrivel up. As shown in Chart 2, US oil demand peaked in 2005. 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